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NBA Free Agency: Dwyane Wade
2010-07-07

As free agency is upon us, the most settled superstar appears to be Dwyane Wade. By all accounts, he is satisfied in Miami and is looking to cement his legacy there. Unlike some of the other stars on the market, he has already won a title with his current team. Nevertheless, he is perhaps just as important as any individual involved in free agency. With the impending free-for-all, he is looking to leverage his superstar status and team’s success to help Miami acquire players who can return them to the glory of their 2006 NBA title. The possibilities abound and anything can happen in this most unpredictable of periods.

Perhaps the juiciest scenario is that Wade would corral the other two top free agents. It has been confirmed that Wade met with Chris Bosh and LeBron James in Miami about potentially joining forces. This would create a preponderance of talent the likes of which is hard to fathom or find comparison. In Wade’s favor is the fact that these three have already demonstrated that they can play together and not let their egos get in the way. As teammates on the 2008 American Olympic team, Wade willingly came off the bench and the team won the gold medal. Also, James and Bosh both come from comparatively small markets and Miami is the type of glitzy market where their marketing opportunities and brands could grow. However, external sources have some concerns that the three could coexist throughout the duration of an entire NBA season. Wade and James have similar styles that are predicated on penetration and getting to the basket. Considering Wade willed his team to a championship before and has been with Miami for the duration of his career, the other two may be concerned that he’ll be the one getting the ball in clutch situations.

However, the Heat has perhaps the one coach who could help diffuse this situation: Pat Riley. Although Riley is currently in the team’s front office, it’s believed that he’d return to the bench for a chance to coach James and Bosh. Riley’s coached multiple championship teams in the past and has had to deal with outsized personalities before: most recently with Wade and Shaquille O’Neal in 2006, which was a great year for NBA betting on the Heat.

Riley would also need to figure out how to surround the big three with role players. In an attempt to create enough salary cap room for three maximum free agents, the Heat have jettisoned all but two of their players, a dicey proposition. Mario Chalmers and Michael Beasley are good players but if everything went right and James and Bosh joined Wade in Miami, they’d still have a roster to fill without significant money.

Also, there is the very distinct possibility that one or both of these players won’t want to sign with Miami. James seems to be driving all the decisions in this year’s free agency and there will be a domino effect no matter what he decides. Some believe that James and Bosh are a package deal so if James decides to go to a team like Chicago, Bosh may follow him. In that case, Miami would have to look at the next tier of players.

Fortunately for Wade and the Heat, that next tier is laced with all-star caliber talent. A possibility that seems to be gaining steam is that Miami would pursue Amar’e Stoudemire if neither James nor Bosh work out. Stoudemire is a perennial all-star at center, and he would create a dymanic inside-outside duo with Wade. If this were to happen, the Heat would need to decide if they’d pursue another high-end free agent like Carlos Boozer or Joe Johnson, or try to use the rest of their cap room to build around Wade and Stoudemire. Considering that players like Boozer or Johnson may not actually be worth the max contracts they’ll likely command, the latter option seems more prudent.

It’s really difficult to decipher how this will all turn out. In the end, it seems that everything will likely be predicated on James; right now, his three most likely destinations appear to be Cleveland, Chicago, and Miami, with a seemingly different frontrunner every day. No matter what, Heat fans can be thankful that Wade will likely stay and continue to be a franchise cornerstone for years to come.

Are you getting ready for the upcoming NBA season? Head over to www.sportsbook.com the home of NBA betting.

NBA: Raptors invade Atlanta seeking playoff bid
2010-04-09

The Toronto Raptors find themselves in a difficult spot with just four games remaining in the NBA’s regular season. While tied with the Bulls for the 8th and final playoff spot in the Eastern Conference as of this morning, Toronto needs a win in a city it has struggled, Atlanta, all the while hoping to avoid looking ahead to Sunday’s showdown with Chicago. Making matters worse, Raptors star Chris Bosh could be sidelined for the rest of the season. Sportsbook.com has installed the host Hawks as 9-point favorites for Friday’s contest.

Three weeks ago, Bosh helped the Toronto Raptors take advantage of the absence of Atlanta Hawks leading scorer Joe Johnson. While Johnson might be out again Friday night in Atlanta, the Raptors won’t be able to rely on Bosh this time. Attempting to close in on the Eastern Conference’s final playoff berth, Toronto will try to overcome the loss of its leading scorer and rebounder and win in Atlanta for the first time in nearly 2 1/2 years.

Bosh made a 16-foot jumper with 2.1 seconds left in a 106-105 home victory over the Hawks on March 17, while Johnson sat with a strained Achilles’. That shot is one of the reasons Toronto (38-40, 35-41-2 ATS) is still battling Chicago for the eighth playoff spot in the East.

The Raptors will have to beat out the Bulls without Bosh, who’s expected to be sidelined for “weeks” while recovering from surgery to repair a facial fracture. The All-Star forward, whose averaging career bests of 24.0 points and 10.8 rebounds, suffered the injury when he took an inadvertent elbow from Cleveland forward Antawn Jamison in a 113-101 loss Tuesday.

The next night, Hedo Turkoglu bumped heads with Boston’s Tony Allen as Toronto dropped its third straight, 115-104. Turkoglu remains day-to-day after a CT scan showed no major injuries.

“When it rains it pours, I guess,” swingman Antoine Wright said. “We’re dropping like flies right now.” The spread losses are piling up as well with 4-14 ATS record after allowing 100 or more points.

Those injuries could hurt the Raptors, who are 6-13 ATS off SU loss, during a pivotal two-game stretch against the Hawks (49-29, 44-33-1 ATS) and Bulls, who visit Toronto on Sunday.

Heading to Atlanta doesn’t seem like a good way to begin as they’re winless in four trips (1-3 ATS) since a 100-88 victory Dec. 11, 2007. The Raptors, though, could have an opportunity to snap that skid if Johnson misses his fourth straight game with a sprained right thumb.

Before the loss in March, the Hawks had won four straight over Toronto with their leading scorer (21.2 ppg) in the lineup, including the first two meetings this season. In the previous matchup in Atlanta, they broke a Philips Arena scoring record with a 146-115 victory Dec. 2. Al Horford scored 24 points to lead nine Hawks players in double figures.

Atlanta, though, has scored 94.3 points per game - 7.3 below its season average - over its last nine contests, topping 100 just once. Despite those scoring struggles, the Hawks have won 10 straight at home (6-4 ATS), their longest streak since taking 20 straight from Nov. 12, 1996-Feb. 12, 1997.

Adding to that run would give Atlanta its first 50-win season since 1997-98 and also help in the race for the East’s No. 3 seed. The Hawks enter Friday tied with Boston with four games remaining for both clubs and they are 6-2 ATS if their opponent cracked the century mark in points in previous outing.

They’ll face a Raptors team that’s allowed at least 113 points in four straight games and an average of 108.7 during a 7-16 stretch. That could help the Hawks deliver a better performance than in Wednesday’s 90-88 loss at Detroit. Against a team that was missing five players, Atlanta blew a nine-point lead, getting outscored 25-16 in the fourth quarter.

Sportsbook.com released the Hawks as nine-point favorites with total of 202.5 in this battle of Eastern Conference clubs fighting for positioning in the playoffs. Atlanta is 14-4 ATS vs. Atlantic Division teams and 9-3 OVER off a spread loss.

Toronto is 4-1-1 ATS in last six road encounters, but 9-23 ATS if last outing was double digit loss. The Raptors are 7-3 OVER after a spread defeat.

This matchup begins at 7:30 Eastern in local TV markets with the favorite 10-3 ATS.

The StatFox Power Line shows Atlanta by 9, almost as if oddsmakers simply looked at that number before releasing it.

NBA: Memphis is marvelous
2010-01-29

The Memphis Grizzlies have learned to win games with defense during their remarkable run since mid-December, and that’s exactly how they beat the San Antonio Spurs earlier this month. Even with the blueprint to beat the Spurs, winning in San Antonio has been another matter. The Grizzlies will catch a break as they try to avoid their 10th straight loss at the AT&T Center on Friday night, though, as the Spurs won’t have Tony Parker due to an ankle injury. The hosts are a 5-point favorite at Sportsbook.com and have caught the attention of 64% of bettors.

Memphis (25-19, 26-18 ATS) has won 15 of 19 games since Dec. 18, covering the spread a fantastic 14 times, a record that’s the best in the Western Conference in that stretch and has helped move it into playoff position.

The Grizzlies have averaged 106.7 points in that stretch, but they’ve displayed some defensive prowess over the past few weeks. Memphis held San Antonio (26-18, 22-21-1 ATS) to 41.4 percent shooting in a 92-86 home win Jan. 16, and limited its last three opponents to 90.3 points per game - 13.1 below its average allowance.

One of the biggest reasons for that defensive improvement is center Marc Gasol, who’s one of five players in the league to average at least 1.5 blocks and 1.0 steal. Gasol has also refined his offensive game, giving the Grizzlies a fourth scorer that averages at least 15.0 points alongside Zach Randolph, Rudy Gay and O.J. Mayo. Gasol had 25 points, 12 rebounds, four assists and two steals in Wednesday’s 99-93 win at Detroit.

Memphis has won its past four games in which it failed to score 100 points after going 2-11 in its first 13 such contests. “We’re a different team,” Gasol told the NBA’s official Web site. “We’ve changed our mentality and we’re working harder.” Gasol is certainly correct with Memphis 16-4 ATS after two or more consecutive wins over the last two seasons.

The Grizzlies have won their past three games by six points or fewer, and Wednesday’s victory was their 25th - one more than they had last season and they are 14-4 ATS in up-tempo games where they attempt 84 or more shots this season.

A win in San Antonio for the first time since Feb. 26, 2005 (4-5 ATS in that span), would tie the Grizzlies with the Spurs for second place in the Southwest Division, and they won’t have to worry about one of San Antonio’s top offensive threats.

The Spurs snapped a three-game losing streak Wednesday with an impressive 105-90 win over Atlanta, but Parker sprained his left ankle and will sit Friday and possibly Sunday against Denver. “We’re going to have to adjust to it,” said Tim Duncan, who grabbed a career-high 27 rebounds and scored 21 points. “We’re trying to get something going here and then we lose Tony. We’ll find a way to get it done.” Finding a way has been a specialty of San Antonio who is 11-3 ATS facing clubs that hoist up 83 or more shots a contest.

Parker averaged 18.6 points and 7.0 assists during the Spurs’ nine straight home wins over the Grizzlies, but he was held to four points in the loss in Memphis last month. Duncan and the Grizzlies’ Randolph each had 23 points in that game - Randolph has scored 20 or more in eight straight games - but the Spurs will want to keep close tabs on Mayo. The third overall pick of the 2008 draft has averaged 30.5 points in his two visits to San Antonio - the last of which was a 106-103 overtime loss on Dec. 27, 2008.

With Parker sidelined, the Spurs are five-point favorites with 199 total. Surprisingly, San Antonio is 5-19 ATS revenging a road loss since last year, losing by an average of almost two points per game. Here is a crazy number for the home team, they are 14-1 UNDER after a game where they had two or less steals. The Grizzlies are roaring with confidence, 15-1 ATS after playing a game as favorite this season and 14-4 OVER as a road underdog.

NBA: Portland poised for bounce back
2009-04-21

Coach Nate McMillan knew the difference, evidently his team did not. The Portland coach saw his young charges become caught up in the moment and they never responded, in 108-81 hazing by Houston as playoff “freshmen”. Having one of the best home court advantages in the NBA in compiling 34-7 (26-15 ATS) record, the Trailblazers immediately surrendered that hard fought edge and have to bounce back in Game Two or prospects for surviving the first round are dim. The hosts remain a 5.5-point favorite, but Sportsbook.com bettors are backing the visiting Rockets at about a 4-1 clip.

Houston’s strategy of clamping down on Brandon Roy and LaMarcus Aldridge worked as they were combined 13-35 from the field and only Greg Oden was force on offense with 15 points, as Portland shot 41.7 percent from the floor. The Blazers shot the three-ball like they were basketball Luddites, clanging 10 of 11 from behind the arc, suffering their worst defeat of the season.

Portland is 16-6 ATS in home games revenging a loss vs opponent of 10 points or more and the coach and players are anxious to put this behind them. “There are two seasons - the regular season and the postseason," McMillan said. "We lost our first game of this season. They (the Rockets) have to win four. We'll go back to work (Sunday) and make some adjustments and get ready for Tuesday."
Brandon Roy said he needs more help from his teammates than he got Saturday night.

"I can't wait for Tuesday," Portland's all-star guard said. "At the same time, we're going to have to make some adjustments. You can't just say we're going to play better. They (the Rockets) knew their game plan. I kept telling guys, 'Don't let this break us.'

“It's our first (playoff) experience. We're trying to learn as much as we can, but we do need to play basketball for 48 minutes. We didn't do that tonight. Everybody has to bring it. We can't rely on one or two guys. We have to play better team basketball and play with a little more effort and sense of urgency."

Houston played with the poise of an experienced team, not being affected by raucous crowd to start the game. Coach Rick Adelman, a former Portland coach, deserves accolades for formulating superior game plan.

The Rockets plan was to create more space for point guard Aaron Brooks, especially off screen and rolls, allowing him to use his quickness and he responded with game high 27 points. Adelman also wisely used Luis Scola on offense. In the second half, when Portland would collapse on Yao Ming, Scola was positioned on the other side of the lane for baseline jump shots and he drilled seven of nine, for 19 total points. Scola wisely used his body to defend the quicker Aldridge and the Rockets improved to 5-2 ATS on the receiving end of 5.5 or more points since 2009 began.

Adelman has too many games under his coaching belt to honestly believe his team has gained a tremendous edge. "We've won one," Adelman said. "That's all it is, one game. The next game is going to be totally different. We have to respond better for that game than we did for this game. We're going to take (the Blazers') best shot."

The sciental wise bettor knows of the past travails concerning Houston, like 2-10 ATS record off a win by 15 or more points or 5-14 spread mark after playing as road underdog. This is in part why Sportsbook.com has toed the line at 5.5-points on Portland, with total at 183.5. The Blazers weren’t going to keep playing super basketball forever, coming into the series with six game winning streak and winners of 10 of 11. (Only loss to Houston if you prefer subtle irony)

The Blazers even with the loss are 12-3 ATS as favorites and are 22-9 UNDER in home games revenging a pair of losses where opponent scored 100 or more points. The Rockets have barely launched with 1-8 ATS record off an upset win as an underdog this season and are 12-4 OVER after a double digit triumph.

This 4vs5 match starts at 10 Eastern with Houston 6-1 ATS in last seven meetings.

NBA: Tale of Two NBA Friday Night Favorites (8:00 PM ET, ESPN)
2009-02-06

The Boston Celtics are off disappointing home loss to the Los Angeles Lakers in overtime and have to make the trip down to the Big Apple to take on a more rested Knicks team. The Phoenix Suns are just disappointing period and have a turnaround games with West Division foe Golden State, who defeated them 124-112 in a game that wasn’t that close. These two host clubs are tonight’s favorites in the ESPN NBA doubleheader. Getting the latest betting lines by visiting the LIVE ODDS page.

Though the Celtics (41-10, 28-23 ATS) may be a touch dishearten in losing to the Lakers, they have to feel pretty good about facing the Knicks. For fans of the Knickerbockers, New York (21-27, 28-20 ATS) used to actually have a home court advantage. As this week has shown, The Garden has become a show place for star players to post outrageous numbers. Two nights after the Lakers Kobe Bryant set a record for the most points scored at the "World's Most Famous Arena" by pouring in 61 in a nine-point victory over the Knicks, LeBron James had a triple-double, posting 52 points, 11 assists and 10 rebounds, leading the Cleveland Cavaliers to victory. What’s next, Kevin Garnett, Paul Pierce and Ray Allen scoring 40 points a piece?

The Celtics are a 5.5-point favorite according to Sportsbook.com and are 16-4 ATS in road games off a home loss over the last three seasons. Boston has now failed to cover last three games and faces a Knicks team that is better than they were a month ago. Since January 12, New York is 8-5 and has covered the number nine times. Having lost four of five at home to Boston, the total of 208.5 has proven profitable for the Knicks, who are 9-0 ATS in a home game where the total is between 205 and 209.5 points this season.

Out West, Phoenix (26-21, 16-30-1 ATS) is facing the reality of a franchise in decline. The Suns at the moment are in ninth spot in the West, out of the playoffs. This could not have been what owner Robert Sarver envisioned in bringing in his pal Steve Kerr to be general manager. Rumors are circulating like buzzards in the desert, with unhappy Amare Stoudemire and potentially Steve Nash available for the right deal.

Having lost eight of last 12 games (3-8-1 ATS), it is obvious Phoenix players have little use for Terry Porter as coach, with the offense running thru Shaquille O’Neal, to the dismay of the other players. In a way, Porter is like the step-dad brought in when all the children cared for their previous parent who left. The Suns are only 13-10 at US Airways Center, with dismal 7-16 ATS record and are 2-10 ATS in home games after playing a road game this season.

Phoenix is a 9.5-point favorite over the Warriors (16-34, 23-25 ATS) and should have ample confidence and revenge in their favor. The Suns have won six straight over Golden State at home (5-1 ATS) and 42 of last 47 in Arizona. The Warriors have lost 22 of 27 road games this season and is 0-7 ATS in road contests after scoring 110 points or more, losing by gargantuan 18.9 points per game. This contest will be on ESPN at 10:30 Eastern.

StatFox Power Line – Boston by 7, Phoenix by 8